SHARE THIS SHOW:
ON THE BLOG:
RELATED CONVERSATIONS:
RECENTLY ON TOL:
The TOL Blog
TAGS:
Getting Back to Work: Entrepreneurs
Seth Reams is among the many Oregonians who has been out of work for months. He was on our show last April, talking about how he's coping with unemployment. More than a year later, he has a job working for himself. He and his girlfriend started their own company, making suet (a kind of bird feed). As it turns out, Seth isn't alone. Many people faced with longterm unemployment have decided to start their own small businesses. And of course, even before the recession, people left their jobs to follow their passion strike out on their own as entrepreneurs.
Have you started your own business? What did it take? Why did you do it? How has your experience changed the way you look at work?
This is part of OPB's Getting Back to Work series. You can find news pieces from the series as well as more coverage of the economy here.
Tagged as: back to work · economy · employment · jobs
Photo credit: maubrowncow / Creative Commons
-
Have you started your own business?
Easier said than done...one has to have sufficient funding to even attempt to start one's own business.
-
Well let me think: business plan for bankers? Taxes...of various tupes? Licenses of different kinds, fees? Various types of insurance if you emplpoy more than a certain number? Set-up an approved book keeping system? Building or store inspection by OSHA? Credit line from said bank? How's that for starters?
-
When I graduated from college I employed myself as a technical writer. It was a heady and stressful experience and I made lots of money. I needed the money for my debts and living expenses and I eventually ran afoul of the IRS. I don't know why the IRS wouldn't accept my reasonable explanation that I needed MY money! Good times.
Decades later it looks like I will again rev up the self promotion machine and start a new adventure as an entremanure. I have no idea what I'll do yet but the ideas are slowly fermenting in the cess pool of my mind. Good times.
In the meantime I encourage everybody to quit their employment (except you good people producing Think Out Loud) so we can send a message to corporations and governments that we're not going to continue doing business the way we are.
Corporations and governments will change their ways if we the people change ours. Starve the government and corporate leeches so positive reforms can be enacted.
FEEL (Fraternity Equality Equanimity Liberty)
-
Gereng, you have a pretty simplistic understanding of what it takes to start a business, especially your take on borrowing money. Ya, just drop off the business plan and pick up the money on your way back?! Few banks even lend money for start-ups, you need collateral, you need experience in the industry, you need projections that make sense and the ability to explain how you arrived at the projections, and you need to sell, sell, sell your business plan to the banker. I've been employed in commercial banking for over 30 years and have been able to obtain approval on maybe 8 - 10 startups. Even with a SBA loan guarantee, banks are reluctant. Why? Because of the high failure rate. There are resources for those wishing to start their own business - SCORE, Small Business Resource Center at PCC, OAME - but a person has a steep learning curve to convince a bank to lend funds for a startup. Some of other the other issues you mention, such as tax and government licensing can also be difficult, and if you make a mistake in regards to them (especially taxes) you can find yourself in a very bad situation very quickly. Starting a business is not for the faint of heart.
-
Yes, it was a quickly written message. I can imagine how complex and tough it must be to obtain start up money from a bank. The high failure rate even in normal times certainly makes bankers leery. At present it must be nigh impossible to obtain business loans.
But I know about such dealings only from reading. Never having owned or managed a for- profit business I don't know about it from personal experience. My dad owned a business when I was quite young, but I know nothing about how it was run only that he bought it with his own savings.
-
Entrepreneurship is underated in America. We live in the greatest free market in the world where anyone can open a business, risk capital and after long hours and stress, seek rewards. However the majority of Americans only seek the comfort of a job as an employee with generous benefits.
Only 10% of Americans own their own business. Most of these are just the sole proprietor himself/ herself typically as a 'consultant'. Only 2% of Americans have a business that actually has one or more employee. By far most employees work for small firms of under 40 workers.
Most American's entrepreneur experience is limited to the roadside lemonade stand that they ran during summer at age 10 or the garage sale they hosted 3 years ago. But it is a complex discipline involving logistics, marketing, public relations, employee mmg, tax law, security, insurance, legal issues, and tactical and strategic planning. Plus there is a huge gamble with capital, and over a 50% of new business fail by 5 years. That is worse odds than an American soldier in Iraq, Afganistan or Vietnam. Why would anyone want to risk bankruptcy with such terrible odds? There is a payoff with a successful business and the respect of being a boss and providing for your employees and their families.
Most Americans want the comfort of a job that is limited to 8 hours a day, not a business that requires attention 24 hours a day and 365 days a year. They want free health care paid by the employer and not be the insurance purchaser reading a two inch book of policy restrictions. They want a secure pension plan and not the risk that a Great Economic Collaspe can bring. They want to keep their assets in their home, and not have to risk property on a busy but dangerous thoroughfare with frequent armed robberies. They want to sit back and enjoy free concerts and television marketing which entertains, and not have to make flyers and coupons delivered by hand to demanding consumers. They want someone else to clean the floors and maintain a hygienic bathroom despite frequent public abuse. Who wants to deal with tax law when you can play xBox 360?
-
You answer your own questions. Do you honestly believe that now with the nation on the cusp of a depression, with those still employed saving rather spending that this is a time and circumstance in which people unfamilar with business managment ought to be borrowing and opening new businesses? I hardly think so. Banks have tightened up borrowing to the point where even successful business owners are having difficulty renewing long held lines of credit.
You sound as if you may be tiring of the business you run and are displaying a bit of irritation for people who have not taken the route you travel.
-
"Most Americans want..."
Well you certainly have the Conservative Corporative Statist talking points memo about how to slander and libel American Citizens well memorized.
But it is my experience that you are wrong on all counts, because American Citizens are the hardest working and most productive people in the world.
Americans don't what everything for free, they want to be paid justly for the work they do and they want to be able to pay for the services they want and need, without having to pay outrageous "profits" to giant monopolistic Corporations.
Americans want well designed Regulations on businesses so that those businesses don't hurt United States citizens.
Americans want to be able to be in business and compete, without giant Corporations like Wal-Mart killing off their small businesses and jobs. Americans want a moderately level playing field for our businesses so that we have many many small businesses creating jobs in our communities.
-
I'm wondering, if you hate your employees and "Most Americans" so much, maybe you ought to relocate like you say you're considering.
It sounds like you're not the kind of businessman that I would want to do business with and I bet that "Most Americans" and your own employees would agree with me about that.
-
Tom Ford:
Put your money where your mouth is:
HOW MANY JOBS HAVE YOU CREATED?
HOW MANY EMPLOYEES DO YOU PROVIDE HEALTH CARE?
HOW MANY FAMILIES DEPEND ON YOU TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE?
We had three babies born last year to our employee families. I think you are an employee who hates his job and just wants to be out of there by 5pm. You will always be a drone parasite eating company time and slacking on the web when one, Tom D Ford, should be at work creating value. If your boss caught you slacking on the internet gaming and chatting, I am confident he would fire your ass. And thousands of employees have suffered the same fate.
Why don't you hire someone and give them retirement and healthcare...we will see how long it is before your finances are bankrupted.
-
Why are the rich, owners of businesses? It is because they earned it. And tax breaks CANNOT even begin to compensate for the headache of running a desperate business. But in light of poor compensation, Tax Breaks are just.
We need more entrepreneur training if we expect to lead the world. We need risk takers who dare to be rich and have global vision. We need to make things and invent things and find out what consumers all around the world want.
OR failing that, we should import emmigrants from entrepreneurial cultures who are more successful and ambitious. Yes it is no coincidence that the Indian family runs a 7-11 neighborhood store. OR a Chinese resturant has a site on Main street. Or that a Israeli or Lebanese family runs an import/ export business. Or that a Korean family is running a Solar energy company. Our society has failed to raise dynamic risk takers and that is the basis of the loss of American competiveness. We are raising McDonald's burger flippers instead of an owner -operator of a French bakery on Main street.
-
Recession taught us to save money, we try to minimize the expenses knowing that we money is indeed hard to earn, many companies had close down, some end up with foreclosure and I salute to those which were able to survive against the impact of recession. Maybe this economic downturn will give idea among entrepreneurs to strive more for the success of the business, as much as possible they don’t want to end it to nothing after you’d give your everything. They always try to make it to a point to strive and survive, the attitude of being innovative in trying to come out with the best idea that will sustain the business operation. Good things that amidst of the difficult circumstance that ability to combat the threat are there.
-
A work colleague and I recently quit our jobs at an aerospace engineering firm in Hood River to start a regional composting business. We found that creating a start-up during the recession has some distinct benefits. Notably- much of the capital equipment we require for the business is greatly devalued, which greatly reduces our fiscal barriers to entry.
-
In 2008, before the country plummeted into depression, I was laid off from a large silicon manufacturer. I looked around for work and didn't realize how bad things had gotten. I was afraid that if I picked up and moved again (I had moved only 2.5 years before for this job), I could be let go again and not in a city I loved as much as Portland.
I had run a small business before and if there is one thing I can do it's find work! I hit the streets to find consulting work and continued to look for a full-time job. After one company who interviewed me 5 times decided they weren't hiring after all, I decided to go full force into creating my consulting company. Things have gotten steadily better and I am now getting consistent work. Focusing on health care and technology as well as "user experience" - all buzzwords in today's economy, but also what I happen to be passionate about - has kept me busy.
I realize that I'm very lucky to have the background to make this work and the internal fortitude to experience good times and bad. What I will comment on from others is that you don't need a lot of money to start a business. I have yet to take out a loan - I needed a computer and a LOT of networking -- that's practically free in this town. LinkedIn, Facebook, Podcasts and Twitter are all free and help with visibility locally and nationally.
This week, I am interviewing some individuals to see if I can find associates interested in helping me grow the business. I can no longer do it all on my own. It's exciting to think of employing others AND helping health care be more user friendly.
-
A month ago I left a stressful job that was hazardous to my health, with no job lined up, in order to create a drive to build my own business. My father started his own business selling synthesizers in the 80's, and my grandfather sold apples on the side of the road.
I just know I'll be the happiest being my own boss, doing work that matters to me, and not compromising my principles for the sake of a paycheck.
Ambition inspires ambition, and I hope to see lots of Portlanders following their passions and profiting from them in the coming years.
-
So: what's the business?
I'm curious to see the generational trend:
Apples --> synthesizers --> ?????
-
My friend and I make and sell moustache wax! We're brancing out into other men's care territories as well, it's quite fun!
The business is called Man's Face Stuff and we sell online and at some local merchants. We're at www.mansfacestuff.com and our business just passed the 1 year mark, it feels great to keep it going.
-
AWESOME and creative, good luck to you!
-
Good luck o you, my friend. It takes enormous nerve-not to mention optimism- to quite a job during a severe recession.
-
Starting one's own business is invigorating, exciting, possibly enriching, and DIFFICULT! There is a distinctly Darwinian element to beginning a business. Many fail very quickly when the owners realize how much work it really takes.
Another segment of start-ups eventually waste away and fail because the basic idea proves not to be a sustaining spark plug for economic success, or the owners just aren't that good at running a business.
A smallish percentage succeed and thrive, usually because the owners are willing to climb a very sharp learning curve and put the effort into the business that it requires. Sometimes that means years of nonstop work to get established.
In my opinion, the the best inspiration to begin any enterprise is the fact that even though a small percentage of start-ups succeed, they comprise the part of the US economy that is having the most fun and figuring out how to be independent in an increasingly homogenized and standardized culture. Successful small business owners are exceptional people and usually it is no accident that they make it. It is through consistent effort and the ability to sacrifice and meet challenges. That may seem overly dramatic, but it is true.
For those who can make a small business succeed and thrive AND have fun doing it, the rewards in terms of mental health and satisfaction are immense and priceless. But the cost to get there should not be underestimated by those itching to try to launch any sort of start-up.
In my opinion, starting a business should remain a very dificult and risky proposition. Those who cannot perform or operate a business are weeded out and competition tends to make those who remain sharper and better able to continue.
-
thanks roboturkey. that's really inspiring in all the right ways.
-
Why is no one hiring me?
Only two percent of Americans are business owners who hire the rest of the 98%. There is a long term populist back lash against business owners culminating in recent propositions against corporations and high income individuals....Especially in this Recession, it was most unhelpful. Oregon has a socialist streak that is anti-corporation and it hurts the ability of the private sector to generate wealth and jobs.
To increase employment, this two percent has to be happy. And they are hurting.
I would like highlight a positive solution being employed by Canada. The two percent of business owners and entrepreneurs are a very rare minority. They are as rare as elite athletes or Phd's, but more critical in a capitalist market economy than either.
Canada has a positive emmigration policy for entrepreneurs; if you have a net bank balance of over $1 million dollars, intend to start a business in Canada and hire 4-5 citizens, THEN you get a special path to immigration. It is attracting these rare entrepreneurs from all over the world starting small business and making Canada competitive.
-
Actually is is the predatory De-Regulated Corporations like Wal-Mart that have killed off hundreds of thousands of small businesses. That is due to the last thirty some years of Conservative Anti-Regulation ideology.
Populists think that it is better to keep small businesses in business because they create the largest numbers of jobs. When Corporations are De-Regulated and allowed to grow too large they kill off jobs for "efficiency", they bust Unions and reduce wages to near poverty levels.
You libel Oregonians by saying that we have a socialist streak, what we have is the real respect for small businesses, for realistic wages for realistic work done and for value created. Respect for business owners in our cities and towns who live in, participate, and contribute to our communities.
Your two percent are not the job creators, they are the job destroyers, the owners of predatory De-Regulated job killing Corporations.
-
Tom,
I am a small business owner in Oregon with 15 employees. I am not walmart or a billionaire. I own a corporation. I am a member of my local and state chamber of commerce. I give my employees full benefits, retirement and health care. I pay taxes both on inputs and outputs. On corporate side and income output. And I am a part of that 2%.
How am I a job destroyer? Oregon state business climate is worse than Washington state, and that is why I am considering re-location.
-
There is a flip-side to an influx of new businesses, particularly if those businesses are competing with existing businesses, and are not new concepts. Many new businesses are underpricing and underbidding their services to get work, which in the short-term provides income, but in the long-run, it hurts everyone, and is largely unsustainable. This often forces existing businesses to lower prices, so the profit margins get ever slimmer, and any hiccup in your business, and you probably won't have the redundancy to weather it.
-
After 18 months "unemployed," i got tired of looking for odd jobs to do around the apartment between submitting resumes that were lucky to get an autoresponse. For a total of about $1500 I actually started a business, built a website and have done business with people all over the country in the past two months. The business is far from profitable, but just getting the first few orders was extremely rewarding in the sense of supporting my ability to "do it myself." Like most small businesses, it will likely fail due to lack of investment capital, but I consider every day that I have with it an opportunity to be industrious and creative. It also gives me something to update my resume with and plenty to talk about in interviews regarding "what have you been doing since 2008?"
-
Don't even think about becoming a wedding photographer. When we started our business about 10 years ago we had 30-40 other serious photographers to compete with. Now there are over 2,000 folks picking up a nice digital camera, advertising on Craigslist, and bringing extra money on the weekends. It's not the kind of busiess that you can repair the damage done by amatures later on. It's a one shot deal.
-
My father's adage (and, yes, owned his own business):
When you own your own business, you work at it seven days a week and worry about it on the eighth day.
My father's advice:
Learn some basic accounting (books or classes) to understand the business of business--not just the work of the business.
-
I started my business during the "great recession of the early eighties" here in Portland. I was being underpaid as many people are during a recession, and side work I was doing to make ends meet was more profitable than my reqular job. So I quit my regular job and began my side work full time. I paid off my bills, bought a home in 1985, and still operate this business to this day. It is the sort of business that does well in a good economy, but especially well in a poor one. I repair automobiles. Today many people can't afford a new car, so they are keeping their old ones, and not trading them in every two or three years as they were up until just a couple years ago. They have to pass DEQ testing, and as vehicles have become very complex now, the average "shade tree mechanic" can't do much anymore. So business today is great.
-
For those of you would-be entrepreneurs (and those of you currently running small businesses) there is a statewide network of non-profit service providers that can provide start-up and expansion capital, advice about business management, and market research so you can find your ideal customers.
You can visit http://www.oregon-microbiz.org/resources/for-entrepreneurs/, email info@oregon-microbiz.org, or call the Oregon Microenterprise Network (OMEN) at 503-546-9913 to find a service provider near you.
-
awesome, i had no idea! thanks vplummer
-
I was laid off in April 2008, got a new job in October same year and laid off again 6 months later. I feel like I have been in this condition forever. Earlier this year, as I was doing some consulting for a food vending cart owner, my husband decided we should try to enter that type of business venture. He did all the research and cameup with Italian ice. I think that was the easy part.
Trying to find a sidewalk in which to park our cart was a different story. While the City of Portland allows you to park a cart providing you comply with certain guidelines including a $1M liability insurance, you also have to have the permission from the building owner, and no property management company will do that.
We were denied by so many management companies until we tried our chances with Powell's Bookstore. Being the owner of the building, Powell's was more receptive to our ply and graciously allowed us to do business outside their building.
We are very frustrated with the anti-food cart sentiment from property management companies, they were dismissive and they made us feel we were a liability or a speck on their otherwise immaculate sidewalks. You can panhandle but not work outside their buildings.
We ended up in one of the food cart pods downtown. Our business has allowed me to feel I am contributing again to society and has helped my self-esteem. I played by the rules, went to school and got an MBA. But the last two years have been very defeating, not being able to find a stable job. Now however, I have traded my corporate suit and high heels for jeans, tennis shoes and an apron. It has given me a reason to feel good again and I really hope our business takes off because we have already some plans for the winter season when our Italian Ice would not be sold.
While I lost my identity as an executive I won an identity as an entrepreneur. Now I draw parallels between what I learned at business school and real life business management. -
I have a bead store which is surviving the downturn quite well. But, not without extra effort. I am open 7 days a week with one late evening. I also wholesale my jewelry though clothing stores and do online bead marketing through etsy.com. I believe women that do bead work do not find it to be a luxury. It is a creative endevour that endures although 'world travel' may be sacrificed in this economy. I believe we need our arts to keep sane ! Business wise i keep out of debt and buy less and let go of the hoarded bead stash that has been aquired through the last 20 years!
-
I started my first business at eighteen. And, I fell into a trap that I notice about many small businesses in Oregon, they treat the customers like garbage and they see their businesses as a good deed, rather then what it is: commerce. It is bad enough that artists see themselves as people who shouldn't be starving, because their work is so important to the world, that they deserve to make money from it---now, we have a slew of businesses that see themselves the same way. It is wonderful to be creative, equitable and responsible with what you do, but it is also important to keep it in perspective, and not become as bad as your 'enemies'---which I also have a hard time doing.
-
The US Small Business Administration has an awful lot of information available for people who want to start small businesses. They have short pamphlets that describe each of all kinds of businesses, what is involved, needed, etc. We "The People" recognize that small businesses are the greatest job creators in our US and so we give a lot of support and devote a lot of resources to them. How to do business plans, even what US Government small business loans are available.
Here's a URL, dive right in and have fun:
http://www.sba.gov/
-
As a business owner you wear all the hats at one time - you face all the challenges on your own, 100 hours a week, state/federal/local - taxes/permits/fees - everyone wants a slice of your little pie. - I'm not surprised that over 90% fail or give up within the first 10 years. I run my own micro-enterprise/flooring company, we are profitable but at the end of the day it's a result of the amount of effort that you put in - this past 2 years have been exhausting, stressful and a strain on personal life and there have been more than one occasion when I questioned whether it was worth it. I'm thankful for what we have right now and the position we're in, debt free but I take nothing for granted - there are no guarantees when you're in business for yourself and in equal parts that's invigorating and intimidating.
A Winston Churchill quote about sums up it all up to me:
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
-
Many Community Colleges have a series of courses for people interested in starting a small business and I highly recommend them. Usually they are in the evenings when people can make time available.
Some also set up an ongoing help and analysis program for small business owners just starting out for a period of a year or two. The idea is to help people succeed in their small business.
-
New businesses can get some real help from a publication of the Oregon Corporation Division. It's called How to Start a Business in Oregon and it walks the new business through the steps needed to get up and running. It looks at financing, planning, taxes, payroll, permits, environmental issues and many more issues new business have to deal with. It can be found at the Corporation Division web site, FilinginOregon.com. Yes, I work for the Secretary of State's office but you should know we've had great feedback from businesses who tell us this guide has been a real help.
-
Is this publication free (which would be a great help to would-be business people) or is it YET ANOTHER fee-generating item for the state?
-
to quote mark twain...there are three ways to lie : lies , damned lies , and statistics ! simply , small business does not have a high failure rate. all the statistics used to describe failure ( SBA , Dept. of Commerce , etc ) are actually describing business filings. thus , if i hang out my consulting shingle as a sole proprietor , gain market share and incorporate my sole proprietorship is counted as a failure. if later i add partners and change to an LLC my corporation is noted , statistically , as another failure. in this example after three years of increasingly successful small business ownership i have a 67% failure rate. too , if the stated 4 % success rate quoted was correct and there are currently 29 million small businesses in the US that represents 1.2b startups. the math does not , in any way , support the conclusion. in fact , small business has a better than 80% success rate after 5 years.
there have been 3 million startups during the recession. the large majority will survive. during the great recessionary era i have counselled more than 100 northwest small businesses , losing two.
the second point you must consider is differentiating between small business owners and entrepreneurs. entrepreneurs have a much higher failure rate including folks like rupert murdoch , donald trump , and paul allen.the average small business owner starts with less than $15,000. ( savings , IRA's , credit cards , family loans , home equity loans ) and has a very high success rate. their challenge is not failure or success but rather to create a family wage job with benefits and retirement funds.
go to my website : www.ridgefieldinstitute.com to learn more about the real challenges and opportunities associated with self-employment. thank you , thomas.
thomasa g. jones , ph.d.
small business management instructor
clackamas small business development center
-
Oregon's job creation for small business is hobbled by the business property tax. If you run a small capital-intensive business that requires costly equipment, you'll be taxed on the value of the equipment with no regard to your profits. This skews the population of businesses out there toward ones that don't require much in the way of equipment. Restaurants, photographers, and tour operators who own their own vehicles are particularly hurt by the current tax system.
What would stimulate a wider variety of business creation is a means test on the business property tax so that you don't pay property taxes (or defer them) until there are sufficient profits to pay them.
-
NO JOKE! My folks had a little cafe a few years ago, and had to pay taxes to Lane County (and/or Oregon) for a stand mixer that my partner and I had loaned them for small mixing jobs (buttercream frosting, garlic butter, brownie batter) that would have been way too small for their 20-qt. mixer, and a real pain to do by hand.
(The cafe closed, by the way...lack of community support combined with the taxes.)
-
I will add on to Don's comment by encouraging folks to check out www.greshamoregon.gov/small business
Once there you will learn about two new great incentive programs we are offering to help entrepreneurs open for business. For qualifing businesses we are waiving the first year business license fee and our Garage to Storefront incentive waives many of the delveopement related fees that manu small businesses have a hard time coming up with. We have also consolidated many of the resources small business need to start and stay in business.
In the spirit of full disclosure I am the Communications Manager for the City of Gresham.
-
I really wanted to emphasize my on air comment that it was when the economy was crashing down that the opportunity for ReRack emerged the old "When one door closes another one opens" adage couldn't be truer. If the economy had not tanked this business may have been much smaller than it is today, but with GI Joes going out of business a few months later, people needing money from stuff cluttering their closets, and people needing to make their money go farther the business of reusing Yakima and Thule roof racks has really taken off. If you can find a reuse niche, like the reuse ethos and the work involvled go for it, you will be find a market here in Portland. www.rerackpdx.com
-
My boss, a successful touring female musician, started her own record label shortly before the release of her January 2010 album release. The move was made to have more creative and financial control over her own work, and during these economic times not only are record labels hurting, but musicians too. By cutting out the middleman, my employer has a lot more control and input over every area of her work, where it goes, and who she chooses to work with. The stress and workload are huge, but at the end of the day, the freedom is worth it. She's learned more about the business side of the industry, a huge asset towards any future decisions she chooses to make.
-
Comments are now closed.
Recently I listened to a PBS show describing 'inventors clubs' in Germany. These are teenage clubs associated with the German equivelant of our high schools and I believe they are located in many German cities. These associations are organized for the purpose of inventing or improving on useful devices that are patentable. The young boys and girls who belong to these clubs act individually or as teams to devise and make working models of their ideas. Germany is one of the leading countries today in patenting new ideas and devices.
Meanwhile, over here in 'YUK, yuk, land' our own silly, infantile teenagers are so busy texting, and sexting each other and talking on cell phones and playing video games to have time to do anything else but maybe 'shoot some hoops', as they call it. Then we sit about sucking our thumbs and wonder about rhe economc consequences of falling behind other nations in educating our youths (ancient in vice before their time) and creating new businesses and jobs.
Gosh...do you suppose it may have something to do with the declining quality of our poulation????